By Padraic Halpin and Conor Humphries
DUBLIN (Reuters) – Ireland’s two main governing parties looked on course to return to power in an election on Friday thanks to a giveaway October budget and a loss of momentum by opposition Sinn Fein, a result that would buck a global trend of voters rejecting incumbents.
Prime Minister Simon Harris called the election on the heels of a 10.5 billion euro ($11 billion) budget that began to put money into voters’ pockets during the campaign, largesse made possible by billions of euros of foreign multinational corporate tax revenues.
An opinion poll on Wednesday put Harris’ Fine Gael on 20%, level with Sinn Fein and just behind its main coalition partner Fianna Fail on 21%. A broadly similar result in 2020 led the two centre-right parties to govern without left-wing rival Sinn Fein and they have redoubled a pledge to do so again this time.
The main risk to their return would be if a slump in support for Fine Gael in the last two weeks of the campaign worsens, a danger heightened by the fact around half of its current lawmakers are not seeking re-election, leaving the party reliant on lesser known candidates.
A campaign full of missteps, culminating last weekend in a viral clip of Harris walking away from an exasperated care worker, has cost Fine Gael a quarter of its support since the start of the campaign, a Monday poll showed.
“Sinn Fein would have to do much better than the polls suggest and Fine Gael would have to do much worse for things to change significantly,” said Theresa Reidy, senior lecturer in politics at University College Cork.
That is not impossible, Reidy added, but Sinn Fein would have to beat the 25% they secured in 2020.
That would still be sharply lower than the 30-35% Sinn Fein had in polls in 2022 and 2023, a level that signalled it was on course to govern. Its electoral coalition has since begun to fray, in part due to anger among working class voters at Sinn Fein’s relatively liberal immigration policies.
Government parties have faced widespread frustration during the campaign at their inability to turn the healthiest public finances in Europe into better public services, such as healthcare, more affordable housing and adequate support for vulnerable people.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, former rivals which have between them led every government for a century, will be likely to need at least one other smaller party to reach a majority. They currently govern with the Green Party.
“I think it’s potentially a three-party government, but that’s in the hands of the people,” Fianna Fail leader and deputy prime minister Micheal Martin said on Wednesday.
An exit poll is to be published shortly after voting ends at 2200 GMT on Friday, with the full results to come over the weekend.
($1 = 0.9465 euros)
(Reporting by Padraic Halpin. Editing by Jane Merriman)
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