CAIRO (Reuters) -The Central Bank of Egypt is expected to lower its overnight interest rates by 100 basis points on Thursday as inflation continues to abate, a Reuters poll showed.
The median forecast of 16 economists surveyed in the poll, published on Monday, is for the CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee to cut the deposit rate to 21% and the lending rate to 22% when it meets on Thursday. The rate for deposits is currently 22% and for lending 23%.
“We expect that continued disinflation paves the way for the CBE to deliver another aggressive interest rate cut, and would still leave real interest rates in a firmly positive territory,” said John Swanston of Capital Economics.
Annual urban consumer inflation in Egypt slowed to 12.0% in August from 13.9% in July, continuing a downward trend from a peak of 38.0% in September 2023, according to the state statistics agency CAPMAS. That left real interest rates at over 10%, one of the world’s highest.
The central bank has gradually lowered interest rates this year, with a 225 basis point cut in April, a 100 point cut in May and a 200 point cut in August.
Before that, it had left rates fixed since March 2024, when it lifted them by 600 points as part of an $8 billion financial support package with the International Monetary Fund.
M2 money supply growth, at 22.3% in July, has also been inching down over the last few months.
“Given recent geopolitical developments and a creep up in oil prices, we are thinking they will remain relatively cautious with a 100 bps cut,” said Farouk Soussa of Goldman Sachs.
Egypt’s fuel pricing committee is scheduled to raise prices of fuel, which is heavily subsidised, in early October as the country works to reach cost recovery and reduce its current account deficit.
(Reporting by Patrick Werr; Editing by Susan Fenton)
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