By Gergely Szakacs
BUDAPEST, March 25 (Reuters) – Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a self-styled country boy who put Hungary on the world map of right-wing populism, is facing the toughest fight of his 16-year rule against a former ally looking to oust him in a national election on April 12.
Orban, 62, has won endorsements from U.S. President Donald Trump and some top European conservatives but most surveys show his nationalist Fidesz party losing to Peter Magyar’s centre-right, pro-EU Tisza due to Hungary’s economic stagnation.
A fiery anti-Communist youth leader during the Cold War, Orban, now the European Union’s longest-serving leader, remains a patriotic hero to supporters, but critics at home and abroad accuse him of taking Hungary in an authoritarian direction.
Born in 1963 in a village west of Budapest, Orban trained as a lawyer, briefly studied political philosophy at Oxford, and even played semi-professional soccer before becoming prime minister for the first time in 1998 aged just 35.
Hungary joined NATO on Orban’s watch but he lost power in 2002. After eight years in opposition, he won a landslide victory in 2010, enabling him to rewrite Hungary’s constitution and pass major laws aimed at creating an “illiberal democracy”.
His consolidation of executive power, new curbs on NGO activities and media freedoms, and a weakening of judicial independence led to clashes with the European Union over democratic standards, culminating in a decision to suspend billions of euros in funding for Hungary.
‘RUBBING SHOULDERS WITH TRUMP’
During Europe’s 2015 migrant crisis, Orban cast himself as the guardian of Hungary’s national identity and Christian heritage, refusing to accept EU quotas for taking in asylum seekers, mostly Muslims from the Middle East and beyond. His government has gradually taken steps to erode LGBTQ+ rights.
His hard line on immigration and his efforts to revive Hungary’s declining birth rate earned him praise from other conservative leaders, including Trump.
Orban – who also racked up sweeping election wins in 2014, 2018 and 2022 – has secured endorsements this time from Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Marine Le Pen of France’s National Rally, and Alice Weidel of the Alternative for Germany.
Trump has also endorsed Orban, saying U.S.-Hungary relations have reached “new heights” owing to their leadership after years of conflict under Democratic administrations in Washington.
“Core Fidesz supporters will be heartened by their prime minister rubbing shoulders with Trump,” analysts at think tank Eurasia Group said.
“But while there has been a flurry of trade deals in areas such as defence and energy, there appears to be no additional concrete political aid for the election (from Trump).”
Orban has maintained close ties with Russia, a key energy supplier, and China, whose firms are building major EV and battery plants in the landlocked central European country.
‘THE SAFE CHOICE’
He has sought to frame the election as a choice between “war or peace”, suggesting Tisza wants to drag Hungary into the war raging in neighbouring Ukraine, which it strongly denies.
“For peace, Fidesz is the safe choice,” Orban said on the campaign trail in February. He has clashed frequently with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and infuriated Hungary’s EU partners by blocking a 90 billion euro aid package for Kyiv.
But opinion polls suggest Hungarian voters are more concerned with domestic issues such as healthcare and the economy, which has stagnated for the past three years.
Hungary experienced the EU’s worst inflationary surge following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which lifted food prices close to EU average levels, while Hungarian wages are still third-lowest in the 27-member bloc.
Despite generous pro-family policies, including cheap loans and tax benefits, Orban appears to have lost the support of younger voters as he has lurched to the right.
With a poll by Zavecz Research showing just one in five voters under the age of 40 backing Fidesz, Orban pleaded with parents at a campaign rally to drive home the stakes of the election to their voting-age children.
“I know young people like to turn against their parents and this can cause political problems,” said Orban, a father of five and a grandfather.
Despite attending countless election rallies and keeping up a barrage of interviews and social media posts, he gave a rare glimpse late last year into the toll that the campaign may be taking after so many years at the helm.
“When I was a soldier (doing military service), they told us a soldier cannot be cold, he can only perceive the cold,” he said. “I am the same. I am not tired. It is just that my strength is running out.”
(Reporting by Gergely Szakacs; Editing by Gareth Jones and Andrew Cawthorne)
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